Flu cases have been spiking across the country over the past few weeks, and the Rockbridge area is no exception.
The Virginia Department of Health, which is tracking cases across all emergency departments and urgent care centers, showed a drastic spike in cases statewide between Dec. 14 and Jan. 3, with more than 48,000 new cases, with 1,356 of those cases coming from within the Central Shenandoah Health District, which includes Rockbridge County. In the month prior, from Nov. 16 and Dec. 13, there were just over 10,000 cases reported statewide, with nearly 350 of them in the health district.
Locally, the Rockbridge Area Health Center has conducted 117 influenza tests between Dec. 1 and Jan. 12, with 19 positive results, including 10 in the first 10 days of 2026. Between Dec. 1 and Jan. 12, the health center had 329 visits for acute illness, both adult and pediatric.
Numbers are up for the Car- ilion system too. Between Dec. 14 and Jan. 5, nearly 2,100 people tested positive for influenza, with numbers peaking around Christmas before beginning to trend back down. At its peak, Carilion had 865 positive cases of influenza, which is lower than the peaks of each of the last three flu seasons. In 2025, cases spiked in February, with a peak of 1,600 cases, according to data compiled by Dr. Thomas Kerkering, an infectious disease specialist in the Roanoke area who consults with a number of hospitals including Carilion.
While Dr. Kerkering did note that the rise in cases is not unusual, the thing that is different with this flu season is the fact that the most common strain of the flu that is being seen, not just in the United States but around the world, is not included in this year’s flu vaccine, though it is a mutation of one that is.
In order for the vaccines to be manufactured and distributed by late autumn to be available ahead of the flu season, the strains of influenza that will be included are decided on in February or March.
This year’s vaccine includes two strains of Influenza A – which typically appear earlier in the season and can mutate rapidly, which can cause pandemics if left unchecked – and one strand of Influenza B, which usually appear later in the flu season and mutate slower. The Influenza A strains that are included are versions of the H1N1 and H3N2 strains, which are the most common strains of flu.
After the strains were selected and the vaccines were being manufactured, the H3N2 strain that was included developed a mutation that is being referred to as Subclade K. That mutation is the flu strain that is proving the most common in the 2025-26 flu season, meaning that there is a mismatch between the vaccine and the virus, which is the primary cause of the recent rise in cases.
Even with that mismatch, Dr. Kerkering and other health professionals are still encouraging people to get the flu vaccine if they haven’t already.
“The vaccine still offers protection against severe illness and more serious outcomes,” Dr. Kerkering said in a recorded zoom press conference last week.
“There are a few things that could influence how the rest of the [flu] season is going to go. Vaccine coverage is one of them,” Dr. Laurie Forlaro, an epidemiologist with the Virginia Department of Health said in a video statement put out last Wednesday. “Vaccines are the most important tool to prevent illness … and reduce the risk of hospitalization and death, particularly for people who are more vulnerable to those severe outcomes.”
In addition to getting the vaccine, Forlaro and the Virginia Department of Health also recommend the following steps to help people stay healthy and limit the spread of any illnesses: stay home when sick, covering coughs and sneezes, and frequently washing hands with soap and water.
Influenza isn’t the only respiratory illness on the rise in the state. Cases of Covid and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are also on the rise. There have been 221 cases of Covid and 96 cases of RSV reported in the Central Shenandoah Health District in the past four weeks (up from 82 and 33 in the previous month), and more than 5,400 cases of Covid and 2,100 cases of RSV reported statewide.
For more information, contact the Central Shenandoah Health District at either (540) 332-7830 or [email protected], or visit https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenzaflu- in-virginia/.
